Bitcoin: Between All-Time Highs and Technical Correction

​

At the beginning of last week, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, approaching the psychologically important level of around $126,000 for the first time. However, the euphoria didn’t last long: by Friday, a sharp counter-move followed. Within just a few hours, the market leader lost around 18,000 points, or nearly 15% of its value, falling back to price levels last seen in September.

​

From a technical perspective, there is much to suggest that we may have already seen the intermediate high of white wave B. Nevertheless, the situation is not yet fully confirmed, which means the price should still be granted some room for a final upward move within the white target zone between $108,900 and $130,800 before the ongoing corrective phase can fully unfold.

​

As the pattern progresses, we expect a more pronounced downward move as part of white wave C, which will likely lead Bitcoin into the white target zone between $62,400 and $51,300. There, the larger white wave A could complete its formation. Afterwards, a renewed corrective B-wave upswing would be expected, potentially driving the price back toward or even above the $100,000 mark, before the final downward movement of the major wave (2) begins.

According to the daily chart, this final correction would extend into the area between $35,700 and $26,850, where we expect sustainable long-term upward impulses to emerge.

Despite this main scenario, a bullish alternative still remains—albeit with a probability of only around 30%. In this alternative case, the overarching wave (2) would not yet have started. Bitcoin would therefore still be in the final upward phase of the preceding wave alt.(1). Driven by this movement, the price could rise into the yellow target zone between $146,500 and $185,400 before entering a broader corrective phase as well.

​

Possible Trading Approaches:
The zone between $108,900 and $130,800 remains a technically significant area for strategic decision-making. Depending on one’s individual trading strategy, position size, and risk tolerance, traders may consider taking partial profits on existing long positions or opening short positions as hedges.
A reasonable stop-loss for short positions would be set about 1% above the target zone to protect against the still-valid upward alternative.